Wednesday, September 02, 2015

And Now is the Window of Our Discontent

It all started out so well.

Finally, after ten years without a world class goalkeeper, we acted ruthlessly and bought one. And from a major rival no less. Petr Cech was coming, and Almunia, Mannone, Fabianski, Szczesny and Ospina would all be consigned to the dustbin of history. Smokey McShowerson was even sent off to Rome. It was a statement of intent. Ozil, Alexis, now Cech - we were serious about getting elite players, and constructing a squad that could challenge for the big trophies.

And then nothing. Even as things sped up in the last week, there wasn't even the usual avalanche of half-baked rumours that usually surface before the window shuts. I was reduced to ever more desperate searches on Twitter. Benzema posed in his Real kit and laughed at our transfer hopes. Arsene was pictured in Paris, for reasons unknown. And as the De Gea deal broke down, Stones stayed at Everton, and United punted a fortune on a teenager, the Arsenal negotiating team was presumably down the pub enjoying its third pint of the evening. We are the only club in any of the top five leagues in Europe who didn't sign an outfield player this summer, unless you count the mighty one known only as "Jeff". Barca signed more players than us while being under a transfer ban.

So where does this leave us?

In summer's past, the debate would inevitably have revolved around money. Namely, did we have any. We can't afford to compete financially! We'll do a Leeds if we buy a player for more than 10m! FFP! Financial doping! Despite the ample evidence from Arsenal's accounts that we were loaded, this excuse was bounded around for years. But it took the arrival of Ozil and Sanchez on whopping fees for the it to be finally dispelled. We have financial firepower. We have loads of it. We are a billion pound club with the tenth biggest wage bill of any team in any sport. Arsene is on 8 million a year. We've just concluded massive deals with Emirates and Puma, and are receiving the benefits from an enormous new TV deal. If you are really still using the 'we can't compete financially' excuse you probably have difficulty counting your fingers and toes.

So a new argument has emerged, essentially a variant of the above - "there were no players available who a) are better than those we have b) who wanted to come and c) we could afford". Let's just assess this for a moment. Arsenal have 25 players, give or take, in the squad. Are these the undisputed 25 best players in the world? Are they all such titans of their profession that the mere idea of upgrading any of them is patent nonsense? No, of course not. Arsenal have a core of elite players - Ozil and Sanchez for sure, Ramsey just about, and now Cech - who are near to being the best in their respective positions. Beyond that, everyone in the squad can be improved upon. Are there no better full-backs in world football than Debuchy and Gibbs, for example, that we could afford and who could provide real competition to Bellerin and Monreal? Tomas Rosicky barely played a game last season yet is taking up a squad spot and wages. Joel Campbell failed to GET OUT WHILE HE COULD and is now deadwood.

And then there are the real problem positions. Arteta's legs are so badly gone that he can barely play twenty minutes of football. Yet he was given a new deal, and takes up a spot and wages. It's very nice that he 'has experience', but I'd rather have someone who can, y'know, play football for an entire match. Flamini is so bad we couldn't get rid of him on a knock-down price. I'd rather we pay off his contract than worry about getting a paltry fee. Coquelin seems to have risen to superstar status by having some degree of defensive nous, but is so inept at building from midfield that Wenger has to play Cazorla next to him as a passer by proxy. I simply refuse to believe that we tried hard enough here. I wonder if Wenger is now caught up in the vanity project of Coquelin's resurgence, and, again, just won't take that risk to see if we can truly upgrade and push on. Kondogbia took our midfield apart in two games against Monaco this season - he was available for a price we could afford and we didn't buy him. But of course there are no players in the world better than what we have who were available.

We also now go into the third season since van Persie left without a world-class striker. Giroud is petulant, lightweight, wilts in big matches, and simply misses too many chances. Arsene has now reached a point where he is dropping OG for big games, yet there are fans out there who would claim he couldn't be improved upon. Theo is, conversely, a big-game player. He's also injury-prone, drifts almost completely out of games, and is one-dimensional. Against Newcastle, I think he fell asleep at one point he had so few touches on the ball, save where he missed an open-goal from less than five yards. I like Welbeck, but he is not a clinical goalscorer, and, as shown at United, will end up being deployed on the wing ultimately. Again, the notion here that there is not one striker in the entirety of world football who we could afford who is better than these three is utterly absurd.

The idea that we can't upgrade on this squad is the refuge of the unambitious, or of those with a near cultish devotion to Arsene. We've been making excuses for Arsene and Arsenal's transfer activity for so long now that fans have arguments outside the Emirates about the correct accountancy terms to use when discussing the market, fella. We have enough money to make big, big transfers happen, but we are choosing not to do it. This is fundamentally how a huge amount of transfers work - clubs don't want to lose players, so you effectively bribe them into doing so. Arsenal can make that happen, but chose not to this summer.

What are we doing as a club? Where is the money going? We have the highest ticket prices in Europe yet we are content with a collection of players that have proved incapable of mounting a credible title challenge. The inertia of the club is startling. We would rather slip into the comfortable familiarity of the third-place finish, than think long and hard about whether what we have is good enough, and whether we can really do better.

Indeed, it is interesting that Arsene continually argues for 'cohesion' and 'stability'. It's almost as if he might have a vested interest in doing so, as the longest running manager in the Premier League. Two trophies in ten years would hardly seem to provide substance for Arsene's arguments of the need for continuity over change.

And this is the rub. The need for change goes all the way to the top at Arsenal. Watching us fall apart in big games, playing the same tactics every week, losing to the same teams in the Champions League each season, there is a profound sense that this is as good as it gets under Arsene. We have the recent FA Cup wins, which have been great. But we are now at a plateau. Ozil, Sanchez and Cech aren't enough to gloss over persistent failings in the transfer market. Bu they are enough to show we could build a better squad, headed by a better manager. There are no transfers that happen, or don't happen, at the club without Arsene's rubber stamp. Until he goes, we won't build a squad capable of a title challenge. The problem is, he shows no sign of going. A sobering thought.


Saturday, November 01, 2014

Is Alexis Football Club as good as it gets?

I've realised that my - albeit infrequent posts - seem to only appear after defeats. So here's one after a victory:

* The line-up for the match was interesting. The defence, faute de mieux, essentially picks itself at the moment. Bellerin seems like a nice lad but is, let's face it, out of his depth. As a lesser of two evils, Monreal at centre-back rather than Bellerin at RB and Chambers in the centre is preferable. The rest of the selection showed some interesting choices on AW's part. The lineup was essentially a 4-4-2, a formation that we might as well play against lower-half of the table sides who are going to sit deep against us at home. Choosing Flamini and Arteta as our central-midfield partnership probably represented something of an insurance policy on Arsene's part, to ensure we we had enough defensive cover were Burnley to break. This did mean Ramsey not getting a start, which was a little bit of a surprise, but this may also have been to preserve him a little for our two forthcoming matches.

* The other interesting decision was Campbell being dropped from the matchday squad, apparently in favour of Sanogo. I have never been on the Joel bandwagon but thought he did OK in his recent substitute appearances, without necessarily producing anything spectacular. That AW sees Sanogo ahead of him in the pecking order is quite telling, and you get the impression that Joel's days at the club are numbered, perhaps begging the question of why we didn't just sell him in the summer. I do think Wenger settles on pet projects, and, unfortunately for Joel, "it's Sanogo" for him.

* We started the game well with a good tempo. Although, really, if you're not able to dominate Burnley from the start then we might as well just pack it in and go home for the season. This didn't really translate into too many tangible efforts on goal aside from some world-class shots from Alexis, and even these curled wide. One thing I have felt, and which hasn't been much remarked upon, is that we lose a little bit of subtlety as a team without Ozil. I know subtlety isn't necessarily a characteristic you think recent Arsenal teams need, but without Ozil we have quite a lot of players whose instincts are to use pace to beat players and flash shots from distance when they get frustrated. There were a few instances in the first half were I thought we tried to force the play, and where a little of Mesut's nuance might have been nice.

* Burnley were predictably quite quiet. There was, however, still a few opportunities where we nearly contrived to shoot ourselves in the foot, as is our wont. The particular culprits here were Mathieu "a disease on our game" Flamini, and Szcz. Flamini, put simply, is rubbish. He was a welcome shot in the arm at the start of last season when the club was in a bit of a mess, and his performance in last year's North London derby deserves to be remembered as massive. But there has been a slow regression in his performances since then to his current state, where he is barely able to dominate Championship-level midfields. The sooner we buy a competent DM the better. As for Szcz, he seems to be metamorphosing into what I would call "full Almunia". This is a condition where a goalkeeper is unable to stop himself from blundering, whether it be rushing off his line, incorrectly positioning himself, failing to catch basic crosses, or clearing the ball so terribly that it should be recorded as an assist. His confidence, so welcome after the gaunt, hollow eyes of Manuel, now appears to be little more than hubris. Had we not bought an injured goalkeeper - side note STOP BUYING INJURED PLAYERS - I have no doubt Ospina would be getting minutes in the league at this point.

* The breakthrough, when it came, was somewhat inevitable. Despite the clock ticking down, it did seem that Burnley would have the one lapse of concentration that is fatal in games such as this, and with Chambers' follow-up occurring so soon afterwards, the final twenty minutes were among the most enjoyable this season. Podolski contrived to miss despite hitting the ball about as hard as it's possible to legally do so in a match, and Walcott made a welcome return. How Theo fits into the first team will be fascinating to see. He essentially missed the whole of last season, and the prospect of a team with Sanchez, Ozil and Walcott all fully functioning is quite exciting.

* Indeed, Alexis has hit the ground running at the Emirates. Where we would be without him this season is not pleasant to think about. He is clearly a player capable of scoring all types of goals - long-range efforts, scrappy shots in the six-yard box, headers - and can, critically, make his own chances when others are unable to provide. He reminds me hugely of Suarez - without, of course, the "unpleasantness" shall we say - an elite attacking force capable of bending games to his will. The flipside to this is that he is operating at another level to the rest of the side at the moment, in a manner reminiscent of van Persie in 2011-12. He seems to relish responsibility in a way that is almost the complete opposite of Ozil, and I hope that this will improve the latter's performances as well. The only concern I have is that we become "Alexis Football Club" - a team that is too reliant on one player, and which falls apart when he is either injured or fails to perform. I suppose we will just have to see how that plays out.

* In the final analysis, and despite the wonder of seeing a world-class player absolutely slay a team, this is all a bit predictable at the moment. We seem to be sailing gently towards the pattern established since 2008 - defeat the stragglers in our Champions League group, do enough against teams outside the top six in the league, and struggle in the remaining matches. Looking at the table, we're already in fourth place, and given how poorly Liverpool are playing this season, I don't think Champions League qualification will pose too many difficulties this season. The question is whether we can now use this modicum of momentum to actually kick-on and go further - something we probably won't find out until the game against Man Utd in three weeks' time. Otherwise, Alexis Football Club may be as good as it gets this season.


Sunday, October 05, 2014

Arsene Wenger: The Testimonial Years

Few thoughts on today, this week, and this season:

* We came into the game on a high, battering Galatasaray in the Champions League on Wednesday in one of those games that we still seem able to cruise through. Unfortunately, this leads to the conflation of our ability to win games against mediocre opposition to our overall ability to challenge for trophies. We are capable of the first, but a million miles away from the latter. As long as the two are confused, AW defenders will continue to trot out the same defences for his tenure, and the club will not progress. Anyway, I digress...

* There were a lot of things about this game that served as subtle indictments of Arsene's current management of the club. One of these was the happiness that we had not conceded three goals in the first ten minutes, as we did during out meltdown at the Bridge last year.  Really, that should be the absolute least you can expect of an elite football team - to not be comprehensively destroyed in the first minutes of a match. Yet that is where we are as Arsenal fans nowadays.

* The reason for this was, however, somewhat positive. Clearly, lessons had been learned (to an extent) and our suicidal defensive line of last year had been abandoned. Chambers and Gibbs only pushed forward with caution, and Mertesacker, Koscielny and Flamini actually formed a decent defensive triangle for good portions of the first half. Chelsea played a high pressing game, predictably, but we were not overawed and kept our composure for the main part. Arsene, at last, seems to have realized that we can't just play versus the big teams away in the same way that we would against weaker teams at home. But would this be enough?

* Well, no. Because, predictably, a calamitous defensive error undid our good work. Hazard (another player we missed the opportunity to sign) made a brilliant surging run from midfield, ghosting past two players before arriving in the area. Koz thought "why not stick out a leg?" So he did. And thus a penalty. Koscielny, for all the hype, is an accident waiting to happen in every single game he plays. According to Orbinho on Twitter, he has given away more penalties than any other player in the premier league since 2010. Any other player. This is on top of the red cards, own goals, and general errors that blemish his otherwise good defensive performances. Essentially, you have a player who has the potential to be world class, but who is always a moment away from disaster. That's not really good enough, and it's why I advocated to buy a central defender this summer who would challenge Mert and Koz, rather than just being a back-up. Of course, we did neither, so there you go.

* Despite playing quite well in the first half, we really didn't do much with the ball. We'd win the ball, counter briskly, then things would fall apart at the edge of the area. After Welbz's goals vs. Galatasaray, I'd hoped that there would be a little more incision to our attacking play. Instead, we allowed CFC enough time to organize, and things would gently fall apart. Indeed, the real highlight of the first half was Wenger beasting Mourinho on the sideline after Cahill should've been sent off for a challenge on Sanchez. Small victories.

* I thought we actually also started the second half well too. But again, where was the cutting edge? A goal in the first 10-15 minutes after half-time would've thrown the game wide open. Instead, our final pass was lacking, and repeated periods of good pressure fell apart. With the introduction of Mikel, there was the slightly odd sight of Chelsea, at home, parking the bus. But really, they were just biding their time for the right moment, content to keep us at arm's length while we feigned danger.

* The moment, when it came, was utterly, utterly predictable. I'm not a betting man, but this was the type of bet you take out a 2nd, 3rd, 4th mortgage to make. Fabregas with a killer assist to Costa, who danced through our defence and chipped the ball over Szcz's head. Again, massive questions to be asked about Koscielny's positioning for the goal, while Mertesacker's lack of pace was completely exposed. But it was the sheer predictability of it. Fabregas playing an inch perfect long ball, Costa beasting our defenders. This was every Arsenal/Chelsea game in the last ten years in ten seconds.

* And a word on Fabregas and Costa - let's be absolutely clear on this: we could've afforded both. We could've signed both players. They could literally be playing for Arsenal right now. Instead, Arsene refuses to work with Jorge Mendes, so we couldn't get Costa. You might say it's a bit of a problem if our manager refuses to work with the world's biggest agent. You might. And then Fabregas. Again, Orbinho tweeted a killer stat during the game: Fabregas has more assists than the entire Arsenal team this season. The decision to not re-sign Fabregas was yet another self-inflicted wound in the transfer market, borne from Arsene's hubris. Given our inability to make and score chances when he left, to not sign him was an act of gross negligence, which will pay for heavily this season.

* So what of our attacking options? I like Ozil but I increasingly get the feeling that there is a poor fit between what we need from him and what he can provide. For 42m, we need and want the next Bergkamp - a guy that not only runs a game, but who will step up and seize the moment when required. Instead, Ozil seems content to drop deep and try and orchestrate things from afar, picking passes that are effective in terms of maintaining pressure and possession but not necessarily ones that are going to scythe through the opposition ranks. Now, part of this is due to the lack of runners in front of him. Yet theses are the games that you want Ozil to dominate, and he is not doing that at the moment. If we're going to build the team around him, you expect more.

* I would still say, contrary to many, that Ozil was one of our better attacking options. Sanchez, for example - I love his attitude and his pressing, but he gives the ball away far too frequently. Cazorla did not take the chances that fell his way, despite playing well in a deeper role than normal. And Jack continues to confuse. What is his role in the side? An attacking midfielder? Deep-lying playmaker? Box-to-box player? Who knows - and this is a problem.

* After the second goal, the game might as well ended. Wenger sent on two of his biggest frauds - Podolski and Rosicky - who contributed next to nothing as the clock ticked down. And for all our attacking options, we did not manage a shot on goal till stoppage time. That is a massive concern, no matter how nicely we countered and knocked the ball around at times. In many of these away games, we simply seem to end up in a holding pattern of sterile domination. Too many of our players are unable or unwilling to seize the moment, time slowly slips away, and more dripped points have been recorded before you know it.

* To sum it all up: this is it. This is the next three years - same as the last three years. I tweeted at the end of the game that expectations have now been lowered under Wenger to the extent where not getting a thumping at the bridge is considered some form of minor triumph, and I said that only partly in jest. Wenger's record against Mourinho says it all - he simply cannot beat the man. He's tried everything- taking the game to him, not taking the game to him, even playing a team of kids in the 2007 league cup final. Wenger cannot get the best of him. And so Wenger's record against Mourinho stands as perhaps one of the most damning pieces of evidence for his decline as a manager. The start of his travails against Mourinho lines up almost exactly to the start of the "one trophy" era that has spanned approximately the last ten years. Mourinho may be a monster, but he's a modern manager. Arsene increasingly looks like a dinosaur with each passing game.

Wenger has been left behind. Sure, we can all celebrate the cup win last season, but that should have been the triumphant endnote to his Arsenal career, a moment to say goodbye on a high. Instead, we've gone into the season after another transfer window in which we failed to build a squad capable of challenging for the league. We look like we will continue to lose the big away games that decide the CL and the league. Wenger is either out of ideas, or he's unwilling to change. And so the next three years have become his testimonial seasons; a long, sad unwinding, a few great wins interwoven with long periods of dross. As long as Kroenke gets to keep lining his pockets with higher ticket prices, he won't intervene. The club will continue to do the bare minimum required to be considered "elite". And we'll have to keep watching YouTube vids to remember what is was like to see a title winning team under Wenger.


Sunday, June 08, 2014

Reasons Why we Should, and Shouldn't, Re-Sign Cesc Fabregas

I've been going over this subject in my head a lot over the last few days, and thought I'd share my ramblings with you. So here's the case for and against bring Cesc back home, or taking him away from home, it's all quite confusing really.

Why we shouldn't re-sign Cesc:

- He's a bit of a knob, really. Imagine someone gives you a massive break in your career, enabling you to perform a job you love for millions of pounds. How do you repay them? Well, by saying, on almost a weekly basis, how you will leave this job and go back to your former employer - the one you left in the first place precisely because they refused to give you a chance. I found Cesc's continuous flirtation with Barca during his Arsenal career both tiresome and deeply disrespectful to both Arsene and Arsenal. I get it - you're from Barcelona. If you loved it so so much there, why did you leave? Arsenal are a massive club, and the whole "Barca DNA", "We all know I'll go back one day" story annoyed me hugely. We are not some kind of finishing school for footballing prodigies before they go on to the true club of their dreams. We are Arsenal and you should be honoured to play for us. Basically, don't come crying back to us after running off with your high-school sweetheart and finding out, or in fact remembering, they're a total psycho. You made your bed and you can lie in it.

- Beyond his yearly flirtation, there was the actual manner he left. Trying to push through a move after the 2010 world cup, failing, and then sulking for a season. Let's take a step back here - again, this is a guy being paid millions of pounds to play football, and he's sulking. It was a pathetic, shameful farce. That we allow such things to occur is a major reason why western civilization is ultimately doomed. Then, in 2011, there was the alleged "strike" - again, the self-entitlement and disrespect here is unbelievable. Yes, Cesc is far from alone in the self-entitlement stakes when it comes to football. But, do we want to re-sign such a person? There seems to be a good culture in the dressing room, with very few of the current squad in the primadonna mould that previous squads used to have in spades (I'm looking at you, van Persie, Adebayor, Nasri, etc.) Could Cesc re-adjust to being a squad member, rather than being club captain? Could he take on a auxiliary, rather than central, place in the team?

- He's certainly had an odd time at Barca. Despite creating and scoring tons of goals, the club's fans have never really taken to him. He doesn't seem to have grasped what many thought would be his destiny, and become the new Xavi. There is a school of thought that suggests he is incredibly undervalued by Barca, and this is probably true. But his inability to fit neatly into the team ethic of Barca is interesting. There is only player allowed a free role at the club, and that's Messi. Cesc doesn't seem to have the discipline to play a more controlled deep game, or play further forward. Spain have also seemed to be unsure of where to deploy him - he basically started the European Championship final as a false nine, blowing the minds of hispters around the world. One of the Barca coaches basically said he was a very chaotic player, if I remember correctly. This kinda fits in with the primadonna personality - I play where I want. This pays off most of the time - like in the European Championship final - but it's hard to build a team around such a player, or even to put your full trust in them on the field.

- The club would seem to have a plan for transfers this summer that doesn't include Cesc. In terms of our priorities this summer, a new right-back, striker, goalkeeper and (please please please) a holding midfielder are surely higher up the list. There is an argument that Cesc would be a luxury signing that would take up a large chunk of our budget. I can definitely see this argument in some respects (although I will entirely dismiss it later).

- Which brings us on to my main area of concern - I didn't actually like the style of play, or the footballing culture I suppose, of the Cesc-centric teams seen between about 2006 and 2011. Think about the best teams under Wenger and the attributes that they had - power, strength, and speed. You would be hard pressed to use any of those adjectives when describing Cesc. I read a great quote from Lehmann the other day, who said that when we transitioned from the invincibles side to that centred around Cesc, the team basically slowed down. Two touches were replaced by three or four. We went from a team that destroyed teams on the counter-attack to one that tried to pass the opposing team to death. Remember how many games in 2002 to 2004 were over by half-time? How we would come flying out the traps and knockout our opponents before they had time to settle? And then think about all the games of the Cesc-era where the first half would pass everyone by. Where we would allow the opposition team to park the bus, rather than drive their bus off a cliff. Endless passing triangles involving Cesc, Hleb, Rosicky, Nasri, Denilson, etc. At its worst, the Cesc led teams were the definition of sterile domination. And I do put a large slice of blame on Cesc for this style (and, of course, Arsene for enabling it). Cesc essentially replaced Vieira in the side. We went from a guy who was so direct that he would tackle and pass the ball in the same motion to one that would want about 3-4 touches before even thinking about the next move. For the life of me, I can't work out why Wenger abandoned the mould that had brought his so much success - speed and power - and replaced it with the wimpy, tiki-taka football that made us a laughing stock. The only reason I think he did so is because he had Cesc, he believed in him, and he built a team in his image. People often call Cesc direct, and he is in a Barca team where passing is treated as an almost holy event. But for Arsenal, he was the orchestrator, and he often orchestrated not a lot. A return of Cesc would upset the balance of a team that could, if everyone was fit (please stop laughing) have a good deal of power and directness to it, as typified by its new leader, Aaron Ramsey.

So this, for me is the case against Cesc - a disrepectful brat who would disrupt the balance of the team, both on and off the pitch, and who might see us return to the dark days of the weakest teams of the Wenger era - teams that were regularly bullied off the pitch, but only after completing hundreds of meaningless passes. He might also take up a big slice of a transfer budget that needs to be focused on other positions.

Why we should sign Cesc:

- As mentioned above, he's hardly alone in the acting like a knob stakes when it comes to transfers. From Odemwingie to Berbatov to Bale to even our failed bid for Suarez, footballers have a very loose idea of contract law. Namely, the contract is great in terms of the money they make from it, but the idea this is a binding agreement to actually keep them at a club is something that footballers appear to be astonished by on a regular basis. Ronaldo described himself as a slave, lest we forget, because United tried to hold him to his 100k+ a week contract. So, yeah, while Cesc didn't cover himself in glory during his departure from the club, very few footballers do. I'm not saying he deserves a pass on this one, just that most footballers act like knobs most of the time.

-  Seeing him come back will undoubtedly be very emotional, and it would almost be a symbolic statement of how, after years of selling our best players, we are now committed to not only keeping ours, but buying top players from other teams. In other words, it would help to prove that Ozil was not a one-off signing but the start of a parade of top players coming to the club.

- For 30m, it's a bargain. And what was the point of spending months of the 2011 summer window haggling over a buy-back clause if we're not going to use it? It just looks like a colossal waste of time, another damning part of a summer that should have cost Arsene his job. Players like Cesc don't become openly available on the market very often, and certainly not at knockdown prices.

- If we don't buy him, he will go to Chelsea. Chelsea. Let's just repeat this again - he will sign for Chelsea if we don't sign him. The worst club in world football. And he will play against us, and score against us, and we'll have to watch as he celebrates winning all kind of stuff with Chelsea, and it'll be gross. I would be up for paying 30m just to make sure he didn't play for Chelsea.

- The most compelling reason, is pretty simple - he's really good at football. Really, really good. This might seem at odds with my takedown of the "Cesc-era teams" above, but I'm not that stupid. He was  the bright spot in some of the worst teams I've seen Wenger put out at the club. A midfield combining Cesc, Ozil and Ramsey would surely be the best in the Premier League. If, and this is a big if, we could harness all the great parts of Cesc's game - his creativity and vision - and find a way to put them into the team without destroying the nascent balance that seems to exist could be very fun to watch.

- Wenger's transfer "plans" have, by and large, utterly failed in the last few summers. Let's not pretend there was some kind of master plan last summer. We signed Yaya "competition winner" Sanogo (still yet to score an Arsenal goal), re-signed Flamini (who has been rubbish since about December ), a goalkeeper who played 2-3(?) games, and, of course, Ozil. But we only signed Ozil after failing to sign Higuain, Suarez and god knows how many other strikers. If you think there was a Wenger masterplan to wait until the 11th hour to sign Ozil, then you probably have a figurine of Wenger in your bedroom who you pray to every night. And what about January? No striker, despite Giroud's form having fallen off a cliff. Instead, we signed an over-the-hill midfielder who was injured. And let's go further back. The debacle of 2012 - selling the lynchpin of our midfield, and the best striker in the country to our supposed rivals. As for 2011, where to start? Selling our best two midfielders. Signing Park Chu-Young and Andre Santos. Haggling for months over Joel Campbell, who, to date, has still to make his Arsenal debut.

In short, I'm not convinced there is a plan. Or to put it another way: if there is a plan, recent summers have shown that Wenger is terrible at executing it. I'm fairly convinced, for example, that Jenkinson will start the first game of the season. We are already being linked with a host of strikers, but we have failed to buy a striker in the last four windows. (Bonus trivia question - when was the last time Arsene bought a world-class striker in his prime?) So, rather than rely on Wenger's masterplan, how about we actually sign a top player who's a) available and b) cheap.

- And my final piece of the puzzle - we have loads of money and should actually spend it on top players. This for me, is really important. We heard a lot of guff this week from Gazidis about the "strict budget" that Arsene is working with - this is patently nonsense. It is total spin, and I have no idea why the club is doing it. We are coming off the back of the biggest TV deal in history. We have massive, new sponsorship deals. We are charging the fans an extra 3% on top of the highest ticket prices in England. We have 100m in the bank, at least, already. We could sign Cesc for 30m and still have more than enough money to buy a world class right-back, defensive mid, striker and goalkeeper. We really do. If you think we don't, someone has lied to you. The money is there, in black and white, in the club accounts. We already have the 11th highest wage bill in the entirety of world sports. We are loaded - totally loaded. We can afford multiple, big transfers this summer.

Why we don't spend this money is an interesting question. There is the issue, of course, that the club's large cash balances make our absentee owner richer each day. I don't think that should ever be ignored. But I think there is a wider issue here. Despite the purchase of Ozil, Wenger is ultimately a conservative in the transfer market. He is already talking up "internal solutions", because he prefers to work with what he knows, than take risks. I imagine that Martinez will be promoted to back up keeper, for example. This is the strategy that saw Bendtner become our second-choice striker for parts of last season, and which saw us re-sign Flamini instead of the clearly more talented Gustavo.

If Wenger doesn't re-sign Cesc, it smacks of a fundamental conservatism to transfers that, to be frank, is holding the club back. Once you have gone big, as we did with Ozil, the secret is out - we can afford these deals. My concern if we don't go in for Cesc is that it shows that Wenger hasn't really changed. The FA Cup win of this year will not be the start of a new era, but a poignant moment of unjustified hope that fizzled out as soon as it arose.

It's the start of the summer, so we shall see how things play out. Maybe we will get all the players we need. But past windows under Wenger suggest we won't. There's only so many disastrous periods of transfer activity, or inactivity, I can take.

And, my very final point, as Gunnerblog pointed out, is this: is there really a scenario where we regret buying Cesc? It's hard to imagine. On the contrary, there are loads in terms of the opposite - Cesc scoring the winning goal for Chelsea in the Champions League final. Cesc celebrating with Mourinho. Cesc having to do the "non-celebration" as he completes his hat-trick against us at the Emirates. Imagine all of these for a moment before saying you don't want him back. This isn't just knee-jerk emotionalism - it is the potential scenario of watching a top player, who we could have signed, bring success to another club.

But the biggest reason for me to re-sign Cesc is I want to see real proof that Arsene has changed. That the new contract was justified beyond largely sentimental reasons. If not, we may be looking down the barrel of another summer farce, with at least two more to come.

I genuinely hope I'm wrong.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Season Review - Trophies Matter

There was a moment during yesterday's game, I think after Cazorla had scored but before Koscielny had equalized, where I had my head in my hands and was mumbling to myself, in a near catatonic state - "please don't lose", "please don't lose". I'm surprised I wasn't asked to leave the pub I'd found myself in, as I probably represented someone on the edge of a full-on, falling down-esque collapse. Even after we've won, I still think about how I would have felt yesterday, today, and probably for a long time to come if we'd lost the match yesterday, and it isn't nice. It would have been some form of perma-gloom, a constant headache of how the club just can't win things anymore, an open sore of misery.

So, you know, I'm quite glad we won. Because this is what supporting a massive club like ours is all about - winning stuff. This is what it all comes downs to - winning - and this is why I moan so often. We are in a privileged position of being a club that expects to win trophies each year. There's probably only 3-4 clubs in England who can say the same, and maybe less than a dozen in all the major European leagues combined. I love the camaraderie of watching and following Arsenal, and I would happily do it even if we got relegated down to the conference, but we are a massive club and this is the pay-off we can, and even should, expect: trophies and open-top bus parades.

To go nine years without a trophy at a club like Arsenal: it's justifiable to question the position of senior management. And this season has been a rollercoaster ride that has, through luck as much as skill, thankfully ended with us not stuck upside down on one of the loops.

I am so happy for Arsene, for the players, for everyone associated with the club. Watching Arsene with the trophy yesterday, you know that he knows the "fourth place trophy" line is total rubbish, and he probably hates it just as much as we do. He is a phenomenal man, and manager, and has won us a trophy on a sustainable basis, while competing with clubs that are, to all intent and purposes, cheating. We can take the trophy we won yesterday and use it as a springboard for further success. The squad really only needs additions in a few key areas for us to compete for the title next season. And, overall, I consider this season a success, because we improved our league performance, and finished it with a trophy.

But....yes, there is a but. There have been times this season where I have felt as low as at any time of my twenty-plus years following the club. There have been times where Arsene's entire legacy was on the line. The epic thrashing at Stamford Bridge, the Etihad and Anfield rank among the worst performances I have ever seen from this football club. And, only about a month ago, we were staring down the barrel at Wembley, 1-0 down against a Championship club, and seemingly out of ideas. Per's equalizer that day saved us from humiliation, and, probably, saved Arsene his job.

I had written last summer that our squad seemed perilously light, and so it was, despite the last minute, and surely unplanned, capture of Ozil. With a squad that benefitted from no pre-season international tournaments, and which had a favourable run of league fixtures in the first half of the season, we came racing out of the blocks, and flew to the top of the table. This was, admittedly, unexpected. I have always been a fan of Aaron, but had never expected him to become quite so deadly in front of goal. Things were going so well that a 6-3 tonking at the Etihad was largely ignored as an aberration, and not a hint at how the second half of the season would be considerably more challenging than the first.

To maintain ourselves at the top of the table, Arsene stuck, as much as he could to a core of 13-14 top class players that we have in the squad. This led to him burning out several players - notably Ramsey and Walcott - who may have made a difference in the run-in. I don't actually buy the line that we were unlucky with injuries because we were fortunate in many respects. Sagna - a total warrior once again - didn't pick up a serious injury at all this year, meaning we thankfully didn't even have to rotate and rely on Jenkinson at all. Koscielny and Mertesacker were also fit for the vast majority of the season, meaning that exiled "club captain", and error machine, Vermaelen did not have to be called upon too frequently. Arteta, our only decent holding midfielder, got through most matches. And, up front, we relied on our only proven striker - Giroud - so frequently, that his performance finally fell off a cliff in February, and we were forced to give Yaya "competition winnner" Sanogo a chance.

So injuries were a mixed bag. Where we failed again was to build a squad that could challenge on all fronts in the two transfer windows. We have failed to sign a world class striker in four consecutive transfer windows. In January, when Giroud was on his last legs, we messed around with Draxler for a month, before signing an injured central midfielder on loan. This was total, inexcusable madness.

This was a season of change in the Premier League's top teams, and one we should have exploited. A bigger squad, rotated more frequently, might have been fresh for the big matches in the second half of the season. A more pragmatic tactical approach in the games against Chelsea and Liverpool might have seen us pick up a point, rather than a traumatic beating.

So this is why trophies matter. Because I think that while we showed progress in the league this season, it was ultimately an unsuccessful league campaign. But, when you've won the FA Cup, who cares? The inanity of caring whether you finish in the league other than first comes into focus when you win actual silverware. When you get to have the victory party with the oldest club competition cup in your hands. When you look at Arsene's face full of joy and it almost brings you to tears.

It's nice to qualify for the Champions League; it's much nicer to win things. That's why, ultimately, this season was a success. I remember reading a Wigan fan blog last year after they'd won the cup - "We got relegated but who cares - we won the cup". Well quite.

I may post a few more pieces this week because of my giddiness at winning the cup. But, if not, I'll hopefully see some of you in New York in July - hopefully with the cup on display, and a pint in hand.


ps - thank you for putting up with my moaning on twitter this year. i promise to do it less next year.

pps - that is a non-legally binding promise.

Tuesday, September 03, 2013

Arsenal go big: Transfer Window Review

So, at the eleventh hour (almost literally), Arsenal pulled it out the bag and finally went big. What a window - thoughts as follows:

* Was there a plan? I suppose we'll never know. It's easy to say that the window was a shambles, but it may be the case that we simply had lots of high-profile targets, at high-profile clubs, who are simply harder to buy. The rarer the commodity, the more difficult it is to acquire. It did seem to me that we were fairly methodical in how we moved from one target to the next, and there may have been a more orderly approach behind the scenes than that which played out in public. It also didn't help that our biggest rivals bought a number of good players before the season started. So, for that, I a willing to be fairly forgiving about how things went overall.

* But one can't escape the idea that there was a strong sense of chaos to our window, and it may well be that we were saved by Real's ridiculous transfer policy in the final week. OK - getting Suarez, Rooney, Higuain etc. is hard. But there were other areas of the team that could have been strengthened at an earlier date. Did we really have to wait until the last week of the window to get Flamini and Viviano? I don't think so. The fact is that we started the season in a mess, and get absolutely thumped by Villa because of it. We may have saved the window in its final week - but we surely have got some more bodies in before then.

* So, Ozil. This transfer was not mooted until the end of the window, and was largely written off by the ITK mob, until abou 20 hours before it happens. Given the talk of shenanigans that had been going on for a week before the deal was confirmed, I find it amusing that anyone talks with any real authoriy about the transfer market. No-one really knows what's going on.

As for Ozil the player, well, he's brilliant. A marquee signing, one of the best 10 or so players in the world. The notion that he's "not what we need" is absolutely baffling. Did Manchester United "need" van Persie last year? Probably not - but you buy world class players when they become available. I genuinely think he takes our already decent midfield, and elevates it (along with the Flamster) into one of the best in Europe. The size of the fee is a statement, and the transfer has the potential to be a game-changer in the way that Dennis's arrival was all those years ago. Well done, Arsenal - you got this one right.

* But I actually think the re-signing of Flamini will also prove to be an inspired move. I had been slightly skeptical, but the way he instantly resumed his c.2008 performances on Sunday was breathtaking. Flamini is a high-tempo scrapper, but with a refinement to his passing that should only have improved further after his time in Milan (who, after all, offered him a new deal). Given he can fill-in across defence, and with Vermaelen's impending return, I actually thnk we are pretty well stocked defensively, especially given that Sagna hasn't left (a massive coup in itself).

*I am broadly happy with the signing of Viviano, who does seem to be highly rated in Italy. I would have preferred, however, if we had simply gone big on a new keeper. This seems like a signing to keep Szczesny on his toes, and I'd rather we'd bought an experience keeper to simply replace him. Maybe Szcz will make good on his promise, but I have real doubts about his ability, and whether he really has what it takes to become an elite keeper.

* The one absolutey glaring omission to our spending was a striker. Yes, we got Sanogo, but, at present, he looks like a midget thrown into the deep-end of swimming pool - completely out of his depth. Signing a striker is just about the hardest thing you can do in football, given their cost, but I refuse to believe we couldn't have gotten anyone. Given Podolski's injury, we are now a Giroud hamstring twinge away from being completely light up-front. One wonders if our relunctance to pay Ba's 3m loan fee may prove to be a bit of an error. Here's hoping we can get Bendtner to stop running over cars for a few weeks.

* Overall, then, I give this window a solid 8 out of 10. The deadwood were finally swept away (although who know where the hell Park is). We didn't lose any major players (koz, santi, jack, etc), brought in two players of proven quality, and a keeper who may to prove to be a decent option. If we'd pushed through a striker as well, I'd be in wonderland. As it stands, I'm very excited about this season, rather than being completely terrified, as I was only a few days ago.

* This window has also ensured two other very big things. Firstly, Wenger will now get a new deal with minimal protest. He's done the dirty and spent big, and, it would seem, been key to our acquisition of Ozil. I would expect a three-year extension before Christmas, despite the fact that one marquee signing does not make up for all the years without a trophy, and all the years in which we could have gone big but didn't. Secondly, Kroenke's presence in the statement accompanying Ozil's arrival might as well have been marked out in 30 feet high, flashing neon letters. Who knows what role that Stan played in all of this, but it will certainly be used as a means of justifying his continued stewardship, after conspicuous levels of (justified) grumbling from the fans. Given that this wasn't his own money that was being spent, I imagine Kroenke is chuckling to himself as Arsenal's enterprise value ticks up another few million pounds.

*A few quick thoughts on other clubs. Spurs have certainly got a lot of new players, but who knows if they'll gel or not. And they also certainly now appear to be short in the creativity and goalscoring stakes - I think we will finish above them again. Liverpool bought quite a few good players, but I still think they have weaknesses in their side that will keep them out of the Champions League. Chelsea bought some exciting players, yet still have Torres as their main striker (megalolz), and let Lukaku go out on loan (why or why?) Manchester City look like they've bought well, but showed fragility against Cardiff that may reflect bigger problems in the squad. As for Real Madrid - essentially buying Bale for 50m and Ozil is surely one of the worst transfer deals in football history.

* A special word must go to Manchester United, who's window was surely nothing short of a shambles, despite keeping hold of Rooney. The cracks that Ferguson's aura helped paper over have surely now emerged with a vengeance. Signing a player for more than his release fee beacuse they thought they could get better; failing to get Real to register Coentrao's loan deal with La Liga, thus scuppering the transfer; and having, it would seem, a group of chancers represent them in the Herrera negotiations - it's not very good really. This is hardly the well-oiled machine that Ferguson presided over. I think they will be the big story this season.

Anyway, roll on September 22. And prepare to see a lot of umlauts at the Emirates this year.


Saturday, August 17, 2013

A Shambles Three Months in the Making: It's time for a Change

Welcome to the new season! What fun! Thoughts as follows:

* It was good for five minutes. Rosicky received the ball, spun and released; Chamberlain played a delightful outside of the boot pass into the box; Giroud timed his run to perfection, and neatly slotted home. All was for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

* And then we all woke up. The tantalizing five minutes of hope evaporated, and what we all knew came to pass - the club is a shambles, and so is the team. We can bang on about the terrible refereeing (and it was bad) but, again, it benefited us to an extent, such as when Woj rushed off his line and gave away a penalty through sheer, bloody-minded, terrible decision making. He should have been sent off, but instead had to suffer the indignity of saving a terrible penalty, only to palm it straight back to the penalty taker. Good times, 1-1.

* After the equalizer, did we ever look like winning it? I don't know. We seemed to get progressively more and more wound up, that's for sure. We bossed possession, but ended up with just four shots on target. That's pathetic. The referee, while terrible, can't be held to blame for the totally mediocre performance that we saw today.

* As for Szczesny - can we finally agree that he's just not that good? He was all over the place today - sprinting off his line for the penalty, rooted to the spot for the third goal, attempting to play midfield at one point when he came charging out of his box for no apparent reason. At this point, I don't care how good he might be - I want someone who's good today. We haven't bought a world-class keeper since 2003 - that is a disgrace, and who knows if Arsene even thinks it's a priority. Crazy. Begovic is openly available for around 15m. Buy him.

* After releasing almost all of our defenders this summer, and buying no-one in return, it was fitting that we got a defensive injury today, and a red-card for Koscielny. I'm almost surprised that chickens didn't literally come home to roost on the pitch, because the defensive shambles we saw today was months in the making.

* Koscielny was unlucky, but both cards were the result of us being overrun in midfield. Koscielny is a reactive defender, and if there is chaos, he reacts in turn with more chaos. He has now had multiple red cards during his time at the club, and, in all honesty, they all seem to be because of the chaos that is strewn across our side.

* The third goal - well, we're down to ten men and chasing the game, so it was almost inevitable. Szcz's positioning was so poor he might as well have just ushered the ball into the net.

* A few remarks on indviduals:

  * Giroud scored. Other than that, he was utterly, totally, completely useless. Still, one more goal for      the statisticians! Who cares if he moves slower than a snail, repeatedly misses the target, ambles        around the pitch without a care in the world! Giroud will never, ever be good enough to start for a    team with pretensions towards the title, but don't worry, he scored twice against Brighton last year!
  * Walcott - what do you do, apart from the occasional useless set-piece? I wish we'd sold him last  summer.
 * Rosicky is the ultimate Emperor's new clothes player, a shining beacon of the mediocrity that has  engulfed the club. He missed a one-on-one chance today by a margin that would have embarrassed  Chris Kiwomya. He runs around a lot, has a nice few flicks, but he is a fundamentally limited player.  Look at his goals and assists record for Arsenal - it's pathetic. He's mutton dressed as lamb, a Carling  Cup player masquerading as a Champions League one.
 * Wilshere - less aggro, more actual contribution please.
 * Ramsey - a squad player. No more.
 * Cazorla - so anonymous he could have committed the Zodiac murders.
 * As I write this, van Persie has just scored a second goal for United. Two words: footballing. reasons.

* When the third goal went in, the boos rang out, and rightfully so. This is *The* Arsenal, one of the greatest sporting clubs in the world. Yet we have a dictator as manager who has now completely, lost the plot. One so wrapped into his world of absolute power, he vetoes deals for players that would manifestly improve the squad. Higuain? Pah. I refuse to pay his fee. Gustavo? Pah. Why pay his wages when we could get *three* Bendtner's for those wages.

We have all known, all summer, that this squad is not good enough. Spurs, who finished one point behind us last season, have spent big under the auspices of a young, energetic manager with new ideas.

I want, and have always wanted, Arsene to succeed. But it's time for a change. He has had three months to prepare for this date, and, instead, we put out a team that embarrassed Arsenal Football Club. That is dereliction of duty. That is allowing your own ego to outweigh the good of the club. Wenger was a genius. Now he is a sad, almost ironic, parody of his former self, a reactionary figure spewing falsehoods to keep himself in the job.

He has two weeks to do the job he had three months to complete. But, whether he finally gets the players we need or not, it's time for a change. The Emirates turned on Wenger today, and I think this is the beginning of the long, sad, slow end to his time as manager.

And I honestly think he only has himself to blame.